Series Wrap-up: Mets / Reds

I'm going to try this for a bit....this'll be the series-wrapup feature, and I will do all my Met stuff here. Other entries will be more on random baseball.

Results of the series

Mets: 0 W, 3 L (0-3 season record)
Reds: 3 W, 0 L (3-0 season record)

Top performers

Mets: David Wright, 4 for 9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, .625 OBP
Reds: Joe Randa, 5 for 11, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 1 2B, 1 BB

Worst performers

Mets: Mike DeJean and Braden Looper, 1.3 innings, 6 hits, 7 runs, 2 BB, 1 Ks, 3 HRs allowed
Reds: David Weathers, 1.3 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 BB, 0 K (and left with the bases loaded today).

One sentence summary:

It's going to be a long year, Met fans.

Longer summary:

I don't know how much stock you can put into the "demoralizing ballgame" theory, but if there ever were one, it was Monday's season opener for the Mets. Taking a 6-4 lead into the 9th, if you blinked, you missed Adam Dunn tie the game. If you got a quick snack, you came back and saw the Reds mob Randa at home plate. The one supposedly dependable guy in this bullpen blew it, too; it wasn't Heredia or Aybar or Koo or anyone else that Met fans fear pitching.

With some reservations, I put a great deal of stock in second half numbers. It was the reason that I took Santana in the first round in both fantasy leagues I'm doing; while his DIPS numbers and stuff weren't as exceptional as his typical stats, his second half was other-worldly. Looper went the other way in the second half, and most lacking was his strikeout rate....

First half: 7.88 K/9
Second half: 4.54 K/9

The drop there is over 42%. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

The other two games weren't as close or compelling. In Game 2, Glavine didn't pitch well, and the 'pen was shaky again. The damage this time was from Mike DeJean, who somehow defaulted into a setup role this offseason, and he all of a sudden was getting credit for being a good reliever. He pitched well for a small stretch last season, that was it. I don't understand where that came from.

In Game 3, we see a completely normal and expected outcome when Kaz Ishii pitches:
1. Walk a few guys early.
2. Give up a few runs on a hit or two.
3. Walk more guys, but work around it.
4. Strike out a solid amount of batters.
5. Give up another run or two before getting taken out with a runner (or two) left on.
6. Watch runner(s) score.
7. Repeat every 5th day.

As far as the Mets go, the oversight that is witnessed here was not in the fact that the bullpen is weak. It's that they're wasting roster spots on journeymen, rather then pitchers with potential. The results would most likely be similar.

The five journeymen that the Mets are carrying and some career info:

• Mike DeJean: 34 years old, 4.31 career ERA (114 ERA+), 1.51 WHIP, 6.34 K/9, 4.18 BB/9. Dejean looks like an OK option for middle relief. He can be plagued by inconsistency; his games in Baltimore were very poor, especially control-wise. After coming to NY, he became a different pitcher, striking batters out at a very high rate and avoiding walks for a 4.8 K/BB. Very nice last year. But this was in 21.3 innings; the sample size is awfully small.
  
• Manny Aybar: 35 years old, 5.05 career ERA (87 ERA+). Enough said. Aybar earned this spot solely on his spring training, which didn't bother me too much b/c of the alternatives. He has shown flashes in the past, but he's never put it together. A guy like Aybar shouldn't be wasting a roster spot, even on a good spring.
  
• Roberto Hernandez: 40 years old, ERA rising since 1999, yearly. Walk rate jumped to 4.61 last year. I believe he still has a job because he closed at one point in his career.
  
• Mike Matthews: 31 years old (young blood!), career ERA 4.41 (93 ERA+). Not particularly good with walk rate, had a solid year in 2001. I think he's in the majors because he throws with his left arm....and he's relatively batter-neutral (slightly better against lefties).
  
• Felix Heredia: 29 years old! 4.44 career ERA (97 ERA+), too many walks, not enough strikeouts. Holds lefties to a low batting average but can get hit for homers (OPS is close for righties and lefties). Heredia quickly got into the Yankee doghouse last year and the Yankees were happy to trade him for Stanton. He's only on the team b/c Met management doesn't understand sunk costs. There's no reason to carry both Heredia and Matthews. Neither is very good, and both throw with their left arms.
  
• Dae-Sung Koo: May as well have him around as another left arm. Koo and ONE of Heredia and Matthews should be on the team. DeJean as well. Aybar, Hernandez, and the other of Heredia/Matthews should go, in favor of Heath Bell, whose 7 years worth of minor league numbers have him with a 10.14 K/9 and 2.55 BB/9 and Blake McGinley, a LEFTY reliever who strikes people out...291 minor league innings, 331 Ks.
  

Bartolome Fortunato is on the DL now, but he should be in there as the third guy, when he comes back. Point is, they should use their minor league pitchers rather than players whose only ability is having held onto a major league job at all. I know that this is a bit hackneyed at this point, but I'll say it again: let's see the minor leaguers!

In other news, Wright proved the most in this series (especially in the third game); he showed his willingness to take the walk. It's funny that Randolph says that we can expect to see Wright anywhere from 2-8 in the lineup; I think he should be leading off.

1. D. Wright (3B)
2. D. Mientkiewicz (1B)
3. C. Beltran (CF)
4. M. Piazza (C)
5. C. Floyd (LF)
6. K. Matsui (2B)
7. M. Cameron (RF)
8. J. Reyes (SS)

That's my ideal lineup for this team, at this point, but I don't see it ever happening. This alignment gives you a ton of speed at the bottom, rather than the top, which just gets on base.

I'm not one of the full-fledged Ginter supporters, but there are a ton of guys in AAA who they could have acquired for a lower price who could have done a job equal to or better than a typical outing from Kaz Ishii.

The Reds came out swinging, led by the onslaught from Adam Dunn in the first game, who hit two monster homers that still haven't landed. The Reds are a tough team to pitch to. They work counts (Jiminez doesn't get enough credit for that, but it's one of his strengths) and tire pitches quickly. I will not recant my initial statement on Cincy; I don't think that they'll finish over .500. That staff isn't good; Milton will do what he normally does. Wilson will be around average. Harang's not bad, but he gives up an awful lot of homers....to me, it boils down to Luke Hudson for their rotation. Hudson was real good last year in 9 starts, but he's not a prospect, really; he's 28 (this May). I like guys like this, but he's gotta be really good for that rotation to get anyone out. Their bullpen is also fairly weak, too, so they're similar to the Mets in a lot of ways.

Verdict for the Mets: this was the second-worst non-injury scenario I could have imagined for the Mets in the opening series. Glavine didn't look good. Ishii didn't have any real semblance of improved control (although after walking the first two guys, he wasn't awful). The bullpen was disastrous. Reyes is only showing flashes, not real results, and he seems to robotically take the first pitch and then come out hacking. Piazza's batting .200 (it's early).

The only thing worse would have been if Pedro hadn't looked sharp in addition to all of this.

Number of the series

858 - The combined distance of Adam Dunn's two home runs on Monday in feet, one traveling 424 feet, the other traveling 434 feet.

Next series: New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves

Friday, 4/8, 7:35 PM: Victor Zambrano v. John Thomson
Saturday, 4/9, 7:05 PM: TBA [edit]: Aaron Heilman v. Horacio Ramirez
Sunday, 4/10, 1:05 PM: Pedro Martinez v. John Smoltz