Brad Wilkerson

Brad Wilkerson has improved in categories consistently over the last 3 years:

Adj. Isolated Power (using PECOTA's method of counting 2Bs and 3Bs as the same):

2002: .187
2003: .188
2004: .240

BB/PA

2002: .134
2003: .148
2004: .154

K/PA

2002: .267
2003: .257
2004: .221

SecAvg

2002: .361
2003: .379
2004: .441

Aaron Gleeman wrote an article last year that I thought of when I looked at these numbers (I linked the article right before posting).

So, is Brad Wilkerson on the cusp of eliteness? Is this the year? Gotta love those trends, though, and his fantastic first week.....
--------------------------------------
(written after the Mets game)

I do think that Wilkerson is a very, very good player, and he could take another step forward this year (cut down on his K's again, hit a few more homers). He's also a prototypical stathead draftpick, before it was really fashionable (I have no idea why the 'Spos picked him...but here's what SI.com has from a while back, all the way back in 1998):

37. Brad Wilkerson, of-p, U. of Florida, Owensboro, Ky., 21
    (L-L, 6-0, 193, .347, 196, 68, 21, 63, 18)
     Pitcher vs. player ?'s still exist; some fear another Drew situation.

He pitched in college, too, but he was an overwhelming hitter. Here are his three seasons:

1996: .407/.547/.635
1997: .386/.507/.767
1998: .347/.538/.743

Yeah. Fantastic college numbers, in an age where the stats weren't as scrutinized. He went to AA in 1999, where in a full season, he demonstrated....a below average season. His only real plus was his walk-rate; he walked 42 times and struck out 38 times in 422 at bats, leading to a .370 OBP.

In 2000, Wilkerson smoked the ball for half a season in AA, crushing AA pitching for 36 doubles in 229 at bats, putting up an impressive .336/.441/.590 line and earning a midseason promotion to AAA. He didn't hit as well, but the walks remained throughout the next two years of minor league ball. (I'm curious where he was listed in 2002's top prospects lists. I don't have any with me here.) In 2001, he got 117 at bats in the bigs for a relatively long cup of coffee (call it the Venti at your local overpriced Starbucks), and again, put up an on-base of 99 points above his very low batting average. Necessity or faith got him a spot in the lineup in 2002, where he did not disappoint. He's improved steadily since then, and he's starting out 2005 on a high note.

I like Wilkerson a lot. He was one of the first guys I saw when I'd seriously started to look at walks and such as important, and when rumours (I love the British spelling) surfaced of his name going to the Mets, I was hopeful. They never did materialize. Can you blame the 'Spos? They've got themselves a heck of a ballplayer now....

I do expect Wilkerson to improve again this year, partially due to his second half stats:

First half: .232/.354/.464
Second half: .280/.394/.534

We don't know how RFK will play, but Wilkerson's improvements from 2003 are greatly magnified b/c 2003 was a very hitter-heavy year, and 2004 was more of a pitcher's year. I'd tab him for a 140 OPS+ and at least to become a more common name around baseball for this season. I just hope he saves his best games for the Phils, Marlins, and Braves....