Teams that I find interesting: Cincinnati

The Reds are a popular pick as a "surprise" team. Their first baseman, Sean Casey, had this to say:

"I think the sky is the limit for this team, We have a starting rotation to be very competitive to win the division, and our offense is one of the best in baseball, I think. We needed some veteran presence because we were getting so young. At times it felt like a tryout camp here because we were giving everybody an opportunity. Now we've solidified some spots with veteran players and we're going to let the young guys fight it out for spots. That's a sign we're going in the right direction."

Sorry, Sean.....this isn't going to be very good. Here's how we know:

"The Reds went on to rank 29th in the majors with a 5.19 ERA, and allowed 236 home runs to fall five short of the big-league record..." - Jerry Crasnik, ESPN.com

So what do they do? "The final step was acquiring a frontline starter...." Damn right it was! But they brought in Eric Milton instead, who gives more flight time than ______________ (insert airline company pun or something similar).

Milton gave up 43 homers last year, and, even though he played at Citizen's Bank Park, he gave up more homers on the road and is one of the game's most pronounced flyball pitchers.

So here's the rotation that the Reds in this home run hitter's heaven have assembled, by ground ball to fly ball ratio:

Eric Milton: 0.57
Paul Wilson: 1.11
Aaron Harang: 1.10
Brandon Claussen: 0.85
Ramon Ortiz: 0.88

Start there. The National League average is 1.25 G/F. EVERYONE on the staff is below that. I'll cut Claussen some slack; he hasn't pitched enough for this to really mean too much.

Congratulations, Eric Milton. Among pitchers with over 50 innings, you had the third lowest G/F ratio, right below Hideo Nomo and Armando Benitez. Nomo was atrocious. Benitez was good, but he was also in a pitcher's park. You're in a hitter's park again. Good luck. (Oh, and if the minimum is 100 innings, you're dead last.)

You don't have to be a ground ball pitcher to be successful in baseball. They are plenty of examples to the contrary. But signing Eric Milton to a big contract shows no vision and no ability to look at a goddamned stat sheet. They're stuck with him for 3 years. Godspeed, Eric Milton. Godspeed.

So you know how I feel about their pitching.

In other news, they could be better there, considering how bad it was in 2004.

The hitting's not bad. Baseball Prospectus has some sort of strange fetish for Adam Dunn, but it's not entirely unfounded. The man can hit. He can rake, as a matter of fact, and he is the incarnate of the adage that I cannot accept in baseball: Strikeouts don't matter. They do matter; not striking out is better than striking out. The only situation in which this is not the case is the double play, and there were something like 9.5 times more strikeouts than double plays in baseball last year. But they are definitely a worthwhile tradeoff if your hitter is Adam Dunn or someone comparable.

Austin Kearns needs to be healthy, but he can seriously hit, too. Dunn + Kearns is prolific, and they're both young, too. His early career success mixed in with injuries reminds me of JD Drew, but Kearns' injury problems have been worse. Since 1999, Drew has had 300 PAs every year, and he always produced well. Kearns hasn't played a full season yet; he hasn't really had half a season yet, either.

While I really think that Kearns and Dunn are for real, Wily Mo Pena looks to be a bit dangerous...sure, he slugged it well (.527), but that on-base is dangerously low (.316), and there's no discipline at all....he walked 22 times and struck out 108. At least Dunn takes pitches....a lot of people like him, but I'm still somewhat skeptical.

Griffey will get hurt.

Joe Randa was a waste, IMO...Ryan Freel is a good on-base guy and Randa's been overrated seemingly forever. It's not that Randa's bad; he's not. But he's not worth it and he's not going to add any wins to the fold.

In other news, Joe Randa has never been to the playoffs. I don't suspect that this is where that'll start, either. :(

Sean Casey deserves mention coming off of his best year since 1999. I doubt he duplicates it, but anything resembling his career .304/.370/.468 wouldn't be bad.

Some quick hits on the bullpen: Danny Graves is chasing 200 saves. Does anyone really care?....Mercker's not bad; he limits homers, but he's yet another pitcher below that G/F 1.25 threshold....Joe Valentine's minor league stats look OK and he's tough to hit, but damn, does he walk a lot of guys....I've got a strange feeling that AAA would do Ryan Wagner some good. I dunno, 25 2/3 innings of minor league experience seems like too few....David Weathers probably has another year or two left in the tank, but he's not the rubber-armed innings-eater he once was....Jose Acevedo's got some control and some potential; he struggled as a starter last year, but he could still put it together.

The Reds have a real good lineup and will score some runs, but I can't imagine them pitching well at all. They won 76 games last year, but, for all of that, they overachieved by like 9 games from their projected W/L from the RS/RA. A really good year for this team would be .500, and I strongly doubt that. The over/under looks like 78....if I were a betting man, I'd go lower.