Teams that I find interesting: Atlanta

I'm going to do some writeups on teams that I think are intriguing, which constitutes most of the league. Essentially, I'm just going to write about a team when I'm bored, which is really what this thing has become. I guess it'll be nice to look back and read this stuff when I'm older and wiser. But the first team I want to do is Atlanta....they've made some changes this offseason. Why not?

Atlanta Braves: The Braves keep surrounding their stadium with division title flags, but is the run over?

Logically, last year was the last year of the run. The Phillies have dangerously underachieved for the last two years and could break through, the Marlins added a prolific lefty slugger, and the Mets signed the offseason's two biggest free agents.

Logic doesn't seem to prevail when we discuss Atlanta. Atlanta is a mythical figure in the world of baseball, the unbeatable behemoth, the unimaginable team who can't sell out its playoff games. Impossible, right?

Surveying the offseason, the Braves opted for creativity instead of rebuilding.

I have to respect Schuerholz for this strategy. I don't necessarily agree with it, but at least he's doing SOMETHING. He traded probably his two best pitching prospects (Capellan and Meyer) and a real solid relief pitcher for, essentially, the top two men in his rotation. (I say this because the acquisition of Kolb allows Smoltz to neatly slide into the #2 slot in the rotation).

Capellan tore through the Atlanta minor leagues last year; as a 23 year old, he struck out a lot of guys on 3 different levels last year, and he gave up all of 1 home run in 139.3 innings. That's pretty crazy.

Meyer's never had an ERA over 3 in the minors. That's also crazy.

When I look at Meyer and Capellan, I see what could have been the front end of the Braves' next division-champion rotation, perhaps in 2007. Couple that with Prospectus' and John Sickels' #1 prospect in Andy Marte, dump some salary and pick up some more young talent, and you've got a real future there.

Schuerholz went the other way, though; he retooled. And he did a damn good job with the rotation; Atlanta has Hudson and Smoltz to replace Ortiz and Jaret Wright. That's an upgrade, assuming that Smoltz can stay healthy. And even if he can't, the price for pitching this offseason was extraordinarily high.

The lineup, however, has taken a hit.

Lineup Changes - Going:

J.D. Drew
Charles Thomas

Coming:

Raul Mondesi
Brian Jordan

Well, the loss of J.D. Drew will be the biggest problem for the Braves. Will Mondesi and Jordan recoup said loss? Quick bit of numbers:

JD Drew XR/27 - 9.23
Brian Jordan XR/27 - 3.09
Mondesi - limited playing time

Mondesi and Jordan are nowhere near the caliber player that Drew is now, and Drew's injury history is besides the point. His 145 game season last year was a MAJOR reason for yet another dominant season from the Braves.

Adam LaRoche is probably the most intriguing addition. He was excellent in his rookie campaign, hitting .278 with 13 HRs and 27 doubles in 356 plate appearances, and he will most likely play a full season. It is difficult to assume similar numbers. LaRoche was never a monster hitter in the minors. He was good on some levels, but he never had that one year or even half season to prove his true value.

It's tough to say that the Braves will equal last season's 803 runs scored. We'll see.

You get a lot of conflicting emotions, per se, when you look at the Braves. They're a team with question marks that is no longer the team it was at the height of this run.

Three questions will pretty much dictate if the Braves take this division yet again.

1. Will Smoltz be able to give effective innings for the Braves? 6+ per start, good innings?
2. Were Johnny Estrada's and Adam LaRoche's surprisingly productive years in 2004 just blips? Or will they happen again?
3. Will Brian Jordan or Raul Mondesi produce at a level close to their career averages? Or are they in steep decline phases of their careers? And, if so, will Schuerholz add another bat to the lineup?

I think the Braves are a solid corner-outfielder away from being the odds-on favorite to win this division. As it is now, it's silly to say that their run is over. They might not take the division, but I've gotta think that they'll be in the race come mid-September.